Inflation Review

Inflation in Belarus increased in Q2-2025 and is moving toward the upper bound of the 7–9% YoY forecast range for the end of 2025.

Annual inflation stood at 7.3% YoY in June 2025. The annualized quarterly price growth rose to 11% QoQ in Q2-2025 (seasonally adjusted). The lag in price dynamics on the Belarusian market relative to Russia in previous periods has now shifted into accelerated food inflation in Belarus. Overheated domestic demand and the labor market continued to exert upward pressure on consumer prices, particularly in the segment of unregulated services. While price controls limited the pass-through of inflationary pressures, their restraining effect weakened in Q2-2025.

A more detailed analysis of inflationary processes can be found in the attached document.