Macroeconomic Forecast for Belarus

Monetary policy loosening will support increased GDP growth in Belarus in 2025, but at the cost of heightened inflationary pressure and a greater risk of economic volatility if external conditions deteriorate.

The GDP growth forecast for Belarus in 2025 has been raised from 1.7% to 2.5% due to the expected more accommodative monetary policy under the new leadership of the National Bank. Excessive domestic demand amid the projected weakening of exports and limited production capacity will result in a greater degree of economic overheating than expected in December 2024. As a result, inflation is projected to accelerate to 7–9% by the end of 2025, against the government’s target of no more than 5%, while the trade deficit in goods and services is forecasted to be around 2% of GDP for the year.

The degree of forecast uncertainty has increased due to rising volatility in global markets and the National Bank's shift towards a procyclical monetary policy. The likelihood of an economic downturn, accompanied by elevated inflation and a depreciation of the national currency in the event of a sharp deterioration in the external environment, has risen significantly due to the weakening of economic stabilization institutions.

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