Express Analysis

The Belarusian economy continued to grow due to domestic demand in April 2025

Over the four months of 2025, GDP grew by 2.8% YoY, and in April separaterly – by ≈2% YoY. GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) increased by 0.1–0.3% compared to March 2025 and remained near peak levels. Output growth was supported by construction amid high lending activity by firms, as well as by consumption of services. Household expenditures, amid continued strong income growth, may shift further toward services in an environment of weakening consumer lending. Industrial output declined in April, constrained by production limitations and weakening demand in the Russian market. Meanwhile, inventories of finished goods continued to rise, surpassing the peaks of 2022–2023.

Strong domestic demand intensified price pressures. Inflation rose to 6.5% YoY in April 2025, while the annualized monthly price growth exceeded 10% MoM (seasonally adjusted). The stimulation of domestic demand through expanded investment lending will support the year-to-date GDP increase of around 2.5% YoY in the coming months. Inflation is expected to move toward 7% YoY and is projected in the range of 7–9% YoY by the end of the current year.

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