Express Analysis

The scale of economic overheating in Belarus increased in Q1-2025, while the risk of severe turbulence in the event of a sharp deterioration in the situation in the global or Russian economy has risen markedly

In Q1-2025, GDP grew by 3.1% YoY, with March alone showing an ≈3% YoY increase. The GDP volume (seasonally adjusted) in March remained close to that of February, and in Q1-2025 overall it increased by ≈1.7–1.8% compared to Q4-2024. The driver of growth remained domestic demand, supported by loose economic policy and rising wages amid a persistent labor shortage. Demand for Belarusian products on external markets, particularly in Russia, weakened. Under these conditions, maintaining an elevated level of output was accompanied by a surge in inventories to the peak levels of recent years. 

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